Strategic foresight
Strategic foresight explores possible futures to improve present decisions and prepare an organisation for uncertainty
What it means, how it is used and where it comes up, with its related concepts.
What it is and how it works
It combines analysis of change, scenarios and strategic implications. It does not seek to predict a single future with certainty. Its usefulness shows when the explorations change priorities, capabilities or specific experiments.
Also known as
Foresight
Topics
Frequently asked questions about Strategic foresight
Which decisions benefit from working with future scenarios?
Those that commit capabilities or resources over a period in which important conditions in the environment may change. Scenarios make it possible to test how a decision would hold up in different futures, rather than basing it on a single expectation. Choose uncertainties that could change the decision. If the exercise does not change any priority, assumption or action, its scope may not be well connected to the problem.
In strategic foresight, do you have to pick one scenario as the most likely future?
That is not necessary in order to use scenarios as a decision-making tool. You can compare options and identify actions that are useful across several futures, along with others that would depend on specific conditions. Scenarios should be distinct and explain their assumptions. Presenting one as a certainty can turn exploration into a justification of the preferred strategy and reduce the value of challenging it.
How do you keep a foresight exercise from ending up as an unused report?
Link it to decisions, owners and signals that can be observed later. Record which assumption underpins each action and what change would require revisiting it. Ongoing monitoring makes it possible to return to the scenarios when new evidence emerges. For example, in a hypothetical case, an organization could prepare a limited trial and scale it up only if certain market conditions materialize.